And the National Housing Survey Says…

Filed under: Market Comentary

Today I’m sharing details from a report that Fanny Mae released today: the Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI). The report tries to gauge consumer sentiment about buying a house right now. It brings different factors together:

  • Are you likely to buy?
  • Are you likely to sell?
  • Which direction are interest rates going?
  • Are housing prices going up or down?

They survey a bunch of current and potential homeowners to collect this information.

Comparing 2011 to 2022

Today’s report shows data from 2011 until now, and we are currently at an all-time low according to the timeframe with this report. One nice thing that is a win: it’s the first time in 9 months that we are seeing a month-over-month increase.

We’ll see where the numbers trend in the future. But I don’t think that’s the important part of the report. I find it interesting to see that 2011 was the last time we were close to where we are now. It was a great time to buy a house. But, at the time: people were saying that it was a terrible time to buy.

Now, again we are hearing that it’s a terrible time. I’m not saying that right now will be like buying a home in 2011. What I am saying is that the consumer can get things completely wrong.

We Can’t Predict the Future

We believe that rates will start dropping by next year. If that happens the way we think, we’ll see housing prices start going up again. Then, we’ll see the trends shift because everyone will think it’s a good time to buy. But the truth is that when everyone is buying, then it’s not the best time to buy due to the competition in the industry.

It will be good to revisit again in 6 months and see what happens. Despite where interest rates are right now, if we drop another 1 – 1.5% in mortgage rates, then I think we’ll see the market taking off again. It might be a great opportunity to buy right now, depending on your situation. Even though rates are a little high, home prices are lower and there are more options available. Remember that you can always refinance in the future if needed.

That’s my $.02. No one really knows what is going to happen. Even though everyone thinks they are an expert, no one can predict what the future holds. Feel free to reach out if you have questions or other opinions for me to consider.

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